Thomas Barkin Richmond Fed
- Fed has time to take in data
- Inflation will be pressured higher by tariffs
- Doesn't expect replay of pandemic era inflation
- Fed faces risks on both jobs and inflation mandates
- Outlook for the economy remains cloudy
- Businesses still in pause mode among uncertainty
- Recent inflation data encouraging, job market is healthy
- Businesses still in pause mode amid uncertainty
This is in line with Powell.
More:
- Doesn't think tariffs will be as inflationary as some fear
- Inflation expectations matter a great deal
- It's hard for businesses to know where tariffs stand
- Recent inflation experience makes it harder to know what tariffs will do to prices
- The exact timing of a Fed move doesn't matter that much
- The jobs market breakeven is now back to 80-100k per month (in non-farm payrolls)
