Fed Daly: Expects the economy to continue to slow. That is what the Fed is trying to do.

  • Feds Daly in Q&A with WSJ
Mary Daly
Mary Daly SF Fed President
  • Expect growth and labor market to continue to slow
  • Expect inflation to come down
  • The Fed is very good data dependent
  • My views and can it change as the economy does different things
  • The CPI coming down is very encouraging, but most is energy costs and in food prices
  • Supply disruptions improving his causing inflation to come down
  • Core services inflation excluding housing that has shown no sense that it is coming down
  • Have not seen core service inflation, down as we would like
  • The biggest risk out there is that inflation expectations would start to drift in response to more persistent inflation
  • Inflation moving down is most likely not going to happen in the coming year
  • We are determined to bring inflation down
  • When you see wage growth come down it's consistent with the employment picture slowing
  • Still out of balance in labor market
  • December wage data was one month of data, can't declare victory
  • It is still too soon to declare victory and stop rate hikes

12:44 PM ET: Stocks are dipping on the comments from daily. The S&P is up 39 points at 3934. It was trading around 3940 at the start of her Q&A. The NASDAQ index was up at 10792. It is currently at 10764.

  • We don't need to see inflation get a 2% before we stop raising and start to keep rates steady
  • This phase of tightening is extremely challenging
  • Reasonable/likely for rates to be 5% – 5.25%
  • "Meeting by meeting" means we don't want to forecast uncertain decisions
  • 50 basis points or 25 basis points are on the table for the next Fed policy meeting
  • During rate hikes and gradual steps gives more chance to account for lags
  • Not going to wall off a 50 basis point hike as not likely
  • When thinking of policy I will be paying a lot of attention to core services ex housing in CPI
  • Want to bring inflation down as gently as we can
  • Estimate unemployment to rise to 4.5% or 4.6%
  • Would be terrific if labor market balancing would come because employers are not looking for more employees
  • Would be terrific if the unemployment rate comes up less
  • Expect inflation to get into the low 3% by the end of this year and then get closer to 2% by the end of 2024
  • To bring inflation down faster would require an enormous labor market pain
  • Changing inflation target is not on the table at all

Daly - consistent with some of the other Fed speakers - tapped the brakes that policy easing is any where close. From Daly, to get inflation to 2% quicker would require more pain in the employment sector. She therefore would prefer the course of continued tightening.to ease up to 5% to 5.25% and then see.

The Dow is up 150 points at 33780. The S&P is up 38.41 points at 3933.48. The Nasdaq is up 207 points at 10776. That is lower from when she started to speak but not by much.

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