European Central Bank monetary policy decision due today - on hold widely expected

  • September is the chatter to bring the next rate cut from the ECB, maybe!

The European Central Bank cut rates from a record high in June, but this month they expected to hold.

While September is being eyed for the next cut, guidance is likely to be non-committal and contain caveats.

Due at 0815 US Eastern time, with Lagarde following a half hour later:

ecb 18 July 2024 preview 2

Comments via a Reuters report on hwta to expect:

  • "We think the ECB is likely to communicate that they are still firmly of the view that inflation is coming down and that they are overall in a position to ease policy further," Peter Schaffrik, a strategist at RBC Capital Markets, said.
  • "We think the ECB is not uncomfortable with current market expectations of another 25 basis point cut being probable in September," Santander CIB economist Antonio Villarroya said. "Further out, our inflation projections are consistent with a pace of quarterly rate cuts, with the deposit rate reaching 2.5% by September 2025."

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