- US tariffs of 25% on European imports would lower euro area growth by ~0.3% in the first year
- A European response in the form of raising tariffs on US imports would further increase this to ~0.5%
A softer growth outlook is as you would expect from tariffs and trade conflict. The ECB is waiting to gauge that impact before committing to anything with regards to their April policy decision. 2 April can't come soon enough.
