- Currently it's a comfortable situation for the ECB
- Risks remain high, even if they haven't materialized or worsened recently
The market is pricing in a 50% chance of a single ECB rate cut in the year ahead. The message is that the central bank is on hold with the usual tail risks around some kind of black swan.
More:
- Some governing council members believe there is still room for a rate cut in December, others believe the cycle is over
- My view is that we're in very neutral territory
