ECB's Knot: A US tariff of 25% on imports would lower GDP by about 0.3 pp

  • Knot says it would lower it more with retaliation
ECB Knot May 2024
Klaas Knot
  • Tariffs would leave a persistent decrease in output
  • In the near term, inflation might fall faster than March projections due to energy and uncertainty
  • Global supply chains could put upward pressure on prices in the medium term
  • Dynamics of underlying inflation are looking good at the moment
  • Before US tariffs announcement I would have favored a hold in March

There isn't much of a signal here. Right now the market is focused on the trade war.

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