- I see no reason to change rates in the coming months, definitely not in December
- FX pass through to prices may not be as strong as expected
- Remaining vigilant to upside risks has become more important
- Overengineering policy around small inflation deviations would introduce unnecessary policy uncertainty
That's been Kazimir's stance for a while as he's also in the neutral camp and wary of upside inflation risks. Nonetheless, he's also reiterating that responding to small or short-term deviations from the target is counterproductive.
By following central bankers recent speeches and comments, you can feel that upside inflation risks are now becoming the main concern. The market is pricing 5 bps of tightening by the end of 2026.
