ECB's Šimkus: I am confident that the data will not support a rate cut in March

  • He doesn't say anything about April though
  • Rate cuts will be more likely as the year progresses
  • We are still less optimistic than markets are on rate cuts at the moment

He could've easily cleared April with the sentence in the headline but he specifically singles out March only. And that shows policymakers are quite aware of what markets are thinking at the moment. The odds of a April rate cut are at ~91% now, so that is the key timeline to watch. The question now is, can the ECB be bullied into a move for that month?

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