Econostream is reported from ECB sources that:
- ECB more likely to hike by 25 basis points rather than 50 basis points
- risk of doing too little currently still greater than risk of doing too much
- it would require a "quite negative" inflation surprise in April
The markets are currently favoring a 25 basis point hike (70% probability). Preliminary CPI data will be released on Friday and will go a long way toward shaping the right decision. The ECB will announce their right decision on Thursday of next week.
