- Prior decision
- Deposit facility rate 2.00% vs 2.00% expected
- Prior 2.00%
- Main refinancing rate 2.15% vs 2.15% expected
- Prior 2.15%
- Marginal lending facility 2.50%
- Prior 2.50%
- Assessment of the inflation outlook is broadly unchanged
- New ECB staff projections present a picture of inflation similar to that projected in June
- Headline inflation seen averaging 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027
- Core inflation seen averaging 2.4% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027
- The economy is projected to grow by 1.2% in 2025 (previously 0.9%)
- The growth projection for 2026 is now slightly lower, at 1.0%, while the projection for 2027 is unchanged at 1.3%
- Will continue to follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach
- ECB is not pre-committing to a particular rate path
- Full statement
All in all, it reads as a nothing burger but the euro is down with EUR/USD easing a little from 1.1685 to 1.1670 currently. The inflation projections are just marginally changed, with it being 0.1% higher in 2025 and 2026 while 0.1% lower for 2027. Meanwhile, there is a slight downgrade to the 2026 economic projection as well.
Besides that, the language in the statement is broadly unchanged with all the key buzzwords still present i.e. data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach, no pre-commitment.
It's on to Lagarde's press conference next.
