- Deposit rate left at 2.00%
- Main refinancing rate left at 2.15%
- Marginal lending facility left at 2.40%
- Rate decision statement here
The market was pricing 99% probability of no change, so there's nothing surprising here. There is just 6 bps of easing priced in by year-end, so the ECB is expected to remain on hold for the rest of the year.
Next, we have the ECB Press Conference at 13:45 GMT/08:45 ET.
Highlights from the statement:
- Economy remains resilient in a challenging global environment
- Low unemployment, solid private sector balance sheets, the gradual rollout of public spending on defence and infrastructure and the supportive effects of the past interest rate cuts are underpinning growth
- At the same time, the outlook is still uncertain, owing particularly to ongoing global trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.
- The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term
- It will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance
- In particular, the Governing Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it, in light of the incoming economic and financial data, as well as the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission
- The Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path
No changes to the statement as the ECB maintains its data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach. There's been very little reaction in the markets as expected given no changes.
