The key details and excerpts to note from the accounts:
- Members broadly agreed with the assessment on the economy
- That being indicators of underlying inflation had changed little over recent months
- And for now, they remain consistent with the 2% medium-term target
- The euro area economy had been resilient alongside global economic activity
- Geopolitical risks also remained elevated
- It was argued that these developments might raise uncertainty for an extended period and adversely affect the growth dynamics of the euro area economy
- Members stressed the urgent need to strengthen the euro area and its economy in the present geopolitical context
- They welcomed the call for governments to prioritise sustainable public finances, strategic investment and growth-enhancing structural reforms
- On inflation, members welcomed the fact that inflation had continued to hover around 2% in recent months
- Inflation remained in a good place and was expected to stay close to the 2% target for the next few quarters, while also stabilising around target over the medium-term
- Most members viewed the risks surrounding the inflation outlook as two-sided
- Some members viewed inflation risks as tilted to the downside
- From this perspective, it was highlighted that tariffs may still have some lagged effects likely to materialise
- A few members viewed inflation risks as tilted to the upside
- From this perspective, some upside risks, especially related to wage growth and services inflation, had intensified
- With regard to communication, members reiterated that the Governing Council was determined to ensure that inflation would stabilise at its 2% target in the medium-term
- Calibrating monetary policy should not be seen as following a preset path but should be understood as being about continuously assessing risks, trade-offs, the resilience of the economy and the implications of all of this for the inflation outlook
- Full accounts
To summarise, policymakers pretty much feel that there are risks to both sides of the equation at the moment. While economic conditions may hint at resilience last year, the environment remains fragile not least with a more turbulent geopolitical backdrop. And considering the uncertain nature all of that will have on the inflation path, it's best to remain flexible for the foreseeable future.
That's the takeaway for the ECB currently.
