- The near-term temporary inflation undershoot should be looked through
- Members considered that the risks to economic growth remained tilted to the downside
- The main downside risks included a possible further escalation in global trade tensions
- The euro had appreciated strongly since early March
- Higher tariffs and the recent appreciation of the euro should weigh on exports
- Trade tensions and elevated uncertainty had clouded the economic outlook
- Downside pressure to inflation could come from energy prices falling further and the euro appreciating more strongly
- But in all scenario projections, main impact on activity and inflation appeared to stem from higher policy uncertainty rather than from the direct impact of higher tariffs
- Full account
The ECB is on pause mode through the summer, so this mainly just reaffirms that for the most part.
