Despite stronger than forecast core CPI a Fed June rate cut is still expected

  • March meeting SEP wildcard is the 2024 fed funds projection.

Earlier:

Adding to the responses, this is in brief from Bank of Montreal:

  • Despite the stronger-than-expected core-CPI print of +0.4% for February ... the interpretation being that there was nothing within the data to dissuade investors from continuing to view June as the most likely departure point for the Fed’s normalization plans.
  • ... the balance of risks linked to next week’s FOMC meeting. Our baseline assumption remains a balanced (which will be read as dovish) approach to the near-term shift in monetary policy.
  • ... as next week’s updated SEP approaches, the 2024 fed funds projection is the biggest wildcard.
Jerome Powell side eye

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