- It would be good for the Fed to get to restrictive territory quickly
- Too soon to say when the Fed will change the balance sheet drawdown
- Unclear how much tightening impact Fed will get from balance sheet cuts
- Job market can remain resilient in 2023
- Real wage gains have fallen short of inflation increase
- Prospects of a US soft landing have increased
Current pricing puts the Feb 1 meeting at 58% for a 25 bps hike and 42% for a larger 50 bps hike. You can imagine that Bullard would prefer the hike faster, even if it doesn't change the terminal rate.
