The Bank of Korea is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.50% on November 27, according to a Reuters poll in which 32 of 36 economists cited a weak currency and overheated housing market as reasons to delay easing. Economists, who previously expected a cut this month, now see the first reduction pushed into early 2026.
South Korea’s stronger recent data, 1.2% GDP growth in Q3 and 2.4% inflation in October, has reinforced expectations the central bank will stay cautious after delivering 100 basis points of easing since late 2024. Most economists said the BOK will wait for clearer improvement in real estate and FX conditions.
Looking further ahead, a majority expect at least one rate cut by end-March 2026, with rates seen settling around 2.25% through next year—slightly higher than October’s poll. Economists say subdued growth, a negative output gap and expected Fed easing in 2026 justify further BOK cuts once conditions stabilise.
