- No one expects BOJ to raise rates at policy meeting next week
- 30 of 58 economists (52%) expect rates to stay unchanged through year-end (previously 48%)
- 40 of 51 economists (78%) expect at least one rate hike by March 2026
- 17 of 31 economists (55%) see BOJ slowing down bond buying from April 2026 onwards
- The quarterly taper size estimate ranged from ¥200 billion to ¥370 billion (curretly ¥400 billion)
- 21 of 28 economists (75%) expect government to trim issuance of super-long bonds
The main concern for the postponement in the rate hike timing is largely due to uncertainty over US tariffs policy. That is threatening the economic outlook with concerns also on Japan's public finances. The market pricing is only showing ~15 bps of rate hikes by December this year, so it fits somewhat with the outlook from analysts above.
