- We had substantial disinflation until recently
- We expect inflation to increase slightly further, but that will then be the peak
- We have seen labour market continue to loosen, wage growth normalising
- Services ex rents is stuck at close to 5%
- We should see services inflation fall materially
- Important to note salience of food prices for household inflation expectations
- Household inflation expectations appear to be more sensitive to food prices since 2022
- I do remain confident we will get inflation back to target with current restrictive rates, and market expectations
- Wage settlements are in line with pay surveys
- Wage growth heading for target-consistent rates
- I have been surprised by how long it has taken for wage-setting behaviour to get back in line
- The risk to inflation outlook balanced
- Cannot rule out that there are some structural problems in the labour market
- A gradual and careful approach on rates apt
- I see scope for further removal of policy restraint
I've heard them saying about services inflation falling materially for quite some time and yet here we are stuck at 5% for almost over a year. Based on his comments, I feel he's more of a neutral/dove member at the moment.
Dhingra and Taylor are the most dovish BoE members at the moment but I would put Ramsden with them as well. He's placing more weight on the labour market than inflation, despite everything going wrong on the inflation side.
