The odds for a move in December were around 61% before the labour market report here. Now, that has gone up to ~81% and this is all before we get to the Autumn Budget on 26 November. With it having been a tight call to hold rates last week i.e. 5-4 vote split, it seems like the data today might just tip the scales and see Bailey move over to the rate cut camp for next month.
Looking to next year, futures traders are now pricing in ~65 bps of rate cuts by the end of 2026 as compared to ~57 bps before the data.
