The expectation is that they will maintain the bank rate at 4.00% this week, though the voting decision is a bit more varied. We are seeing analysts call it from anything between 5-4 to 7-2 in favour of keeping the bank rate on hold but there are a couple of outlier calls as well.
Money markets are discounting the possibility of a 25 bps rate cut but the decision could end up being much closer than what is priced in. Here are some analysts that are calling for a rate cut to be delivered later today:
Barclays
- 5-4 vote split for a 25 bps cut
- “Much of the existing forward guidance is likely to remain, although the
committee may deliver a hawkish cut by alluding to Bank Rate now approaching neutral.”
- Assuming a November rate cut, look for continued quarterly cuts to a terminal rate of 3.50%
in April next year
Danske
- 5-4 vote split for a 25 bps cut
- Chances of a rate cut are "slightly above 50%"
- Sees BOE cutting again in February next year to mark terminal rate of 3.50%
- “The Autumn Statement is a big joker in all of this. If the Labour government comes through
with fiscal tightening as we expect, it will support our call for cutting rates quicker than what
is priced in by markets.”
Goldman Sachs
- 5-4 vote split for a 25 bps cut
- BOE to target terminal rate of 3.00%, with quarterly rate cuts through to July next year
Nomura
- 5-4 vote split for a 25 bps cut
- “We think a rate cut is a close call… The greatest risk to our November cut view is that the
MPC opts to wait for substantially more news published ahead of the December meeting.”
- “In the event of no November cut we imagine guidance would remain unchanged and –
depending on what the Bank says in its comments/press conference – the December
meeting would become very much ‘live’.”
- If there is a rate cut in November, there should just be one more rate cut in February 2026 to 3.50%
