BOC's Macklem: We're putting more emphasis on risk when it comes to the next rate decision

  • That's a rate cut signal
Macklem Sept 17 2025

How do you say cutting rates without saying it? It sure sounds to me like he's signaling a cut at the October 29 meeting. At present, market pricing is only at 68% for a cut, though one is fully priced in at the December meeting so that might not tee up a big CAD move.

  • I hope we can be a bit more forward-looking but there is a lot of uncertainty and we need to be humble about our forecasts
  • We expect growth to resume but we expect it to be be soft and probably a little below potential
  • Growth is not going to feel very good and it's certainty not going to be enough close the output gap

Very dovish stuff.

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