Bank of America said China’s September credit data underscore persistent weakness in loan demand, as sluggish property and investment activity offset modest improvements in infrastructure-related lending.
New yuan loans rose by 1.29 trillion yuan, in line with BofA’s expectations but below the market forecast of 1.46 trillion yuan. Total social financing (TSF) came in slightly stronger at 3.53 trillion yuan, while M1 money supply expanded 7.2% and M2 growth slowed to 8.4%.
Household borrowing fell sharply, with consumer loans at 389 billion yuan, down from 500 billion yuan a year earlier, and corporate loans sliding to 1.22 trillion yuan from 1.49 trillion. Though short-term consumer lending improved quarter-on-quarter due to interest subsidies, volumes remained well below 2024 levels. Corporate capital-expenditure loans also eased to 910 billion yuan.
BofA said overall loan appetite remains subdued despite policy support, but infrastructure spending could offer limited upside for credit growth in the fourth quarter.
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BofA’s assessment reinforces the cautious view on China’s credit momentum, suggesting property-sector malaise continues to offset fiscal stimulus. Modest Q4 infrastructure gains may steady credit aggregates but are unlikely to revive private loan appetite.
