Barclays analysts say their modelling indicates the recent decline is not explained by rates or equities, but it's the resurgence of the carry trade that's responsible. Which is a rates story anyway, right?
Barlcays project a change though, forecasting USD/JPY towards 130 by the first half of 2024:
- "The policy divergence story is going to turn, if it hasn't already"
In the shorter term, a mild intervention warning:
- "The risk of intervention definitely increases above 145, but the urgency is less."
USD/JPY update, still climbing:
