Barclays says a 25bp rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s December 9–10 meeting now looks more than likely, with markets pricing the probability at over 80%.
The bank expects Chair Jerome Powell to support the move along with a solid bloc of policymakers including Waller, Bowman, Williams, Jefferson, Cook and Barr.
But officials are far from united. Barclays anticipates at least two hawkish dissents from Schmid and Musalem, and says either Goolsbee or Collins could also oppose the cut. They also expect Miran to dissent — not because the cut is too aggressive, but because he will likely push for a larger reduction.
Barclays highlights that despite internal divisions, the voting majority is leaning clearly toward easing.
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Barclays’ call reinforces market pricing for a December move, anchoring front-end yields lower while highlighting potential volatility from hawkish dissent at the meeting.
