The Bank of England is expected to slow the pace of its quantitative tightening programme at Thursday’s meeting, while leaving interest rates unchanged at 4%.
- Policymakers are likely to vote 7–2 in favour of holding steady, after last month’s narrow 5–4 decision to cut rates.
Markets anticipate the BoE will reduce the annual pace of gilt sales from £100 billion to around £67.5 billion, according to a Reuters poll, with some analysts predicting an even deeper slowdown to £60 billion or a shift toward shorter-dated bonds.
- While the BoE insists QT has only marginally lifted borrowing costs, critics argue it has exacerbated volatility and contributed to the sharp rise in long-dated gilt yields this month.
The UK faces the highest inflation and government borrowing costs in the G7, with price growth holding at 3.8% in August — nearly double the BoE’s 2% target. The central bank expects inflation to peak at 4% before easing gradually back to target by mid-2027. Governor Andrew Bailey has warned there is “considerably more doubt” about how quickly rates can be cut further.
Futures markets now price only a 30% chance of another cut this year, though economists in a Reuters poll still see scope for reductions in November or December and again in early 2026.
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Gilt yields may ease if QT slowdown is larger than expected, but inflation risks linger
- Sterling could firm if policymakers strike a hawkish tone despite holding rates steady
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The Bank of England announcement is due at 1100 GMT, 0700 US Eastern time.
