- About half of firms expect Canada to be in a recession over the next year, down from two-thirds in Q4 survey
- For 5th consecutive quarter, firms expect sales growth to slow; slowdown follows period of excessive strength
- Overall business conditions indicator -1.1% vs -0.06% prior
- 59% of firms expect inflation to be well above 2% until at least 2025
- Surveys conducted before global banking stress
- Firms continue to see labor market as tight
- 1-year consumer inflation expectations 6.03% vs 7.18% in Q4
- 2-year inflation to 4.27% vs 5.14%
- 5-year inflation 2.92% vs 3.10%
The BOC should feel good about the direction of those inflation expectations. I don't see any reason for them to change their stance.
