The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q3 came in unchanged at 3.9% after the ISM data today.
In their own words:
- The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.9 percent on December 1, unchanged from November 26 after rounding. After this morning’s Manufacturing ISM Report on Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 3.5 percent to 3.4 percent.
The next GDPNow update will be no later than Thursday, December 4. The first model nowcast for fourth-quarter GDP growth will not occur before Tuesday, December 23.
