The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate from their model has dipped to 1.9% from 2.0%.
In their own words:
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2026 is 1.9 percent on April 1, down from 2.0 percent on March 23. After this morning’s retail sales release from the US Census Bureau and this morning’s manufacturing report from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth decreased from 1.9 percent to 1.5 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, April 2. Please see the "Release Dates" tab for a list of upcoming releases.
The Atlanta Fed model for GDP takes the data for the quarter and projects a growth GDP in "real time". As more more data becomes available, the model should mimic the growth for the quarter. However, last quarter, the Atlanta Fed forecas growth at 3.0%, while the actual advanced reading came in much lower at 1.4%. Private economists had forecast and average GDP gain of 2.8%.
