A rate hike at the July 22 meeting is a done deal, but officials from the ECB have been sowing doubt over a September rate hike.
Markets are much more sure on a September hike though, with the chances rising consistently.
This graph of how expectations for the September meeting have evolved over the last few months is via Reuters:
The depo facility rate is currently 3.5%.
A 25bp rate hike in July and then September will take it to 4%.
ps. European Central Bank President Lagarde is speaking today, Friday, 23 June 2023, at 0700 GMT, which is 0300 US Eastern time.
