A 50bp FOMC rate hike today is the overwhelming consensus - but here's what comes next

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement today (at 1900 GMT) and Powell's news conference following (1930 GMT) are the focus.

Earlier previews:

• Slower than expected rise in US CPI adds to the case for a sooner, lower terminal rate
• Goldman Sachs FOMC preview - expect a higher peak rate projection, and larger cuts in 2023

• Timiraos: Fed on track for 50 bps tomorrow but lower inflation could complicate 5% target

This snippet now is via ABN Amro on what they expect in Q1 of the new year ahead:

• We expect the Fed to hike rates a further 50bp in December
• and 25bp hikes in Feb & March
• with the upper bound to peak at 5%
• Subsequently, we expect the Fed to pause, assuming inflation continues moving lower and the labor market deteriorates.