What changed and why markets moved
1) The ECB isn't worried about the latest data
A few ECB members (and many market participants) have recently noted that economic data has been soft. Draghi brushed this aside saying it was mostly give-back from unusually strong exports late last year. He said that nothing had changed in the ECB's expectations.
2) Wages
Draghi highlighted wage growth -- particularly growth in wages that are negotiated -- as a positive factor and one that gives the Governing Council confidence that its forecasts are correct.
3) Through the summer
This has been beaten to death but Villeroy opened up a pandora's box when he said that the phrase might mean rates could be raised at the start of the summer next year. People were also looking for subtle signs in various translations. Draghi emphasized that the English statement is the only one that's a message and that through the summer means through the summer.
4) Markets have it right
As an important detail to the 'through the summer' drama. Draghi said that the ECB is comfortable, if not happy, with market pricing for rate hikes. Right now, the derivatives market is priced for a 57% chance of a 10 bps hike in September 2019. The takeaway is that the ECB isn't necessarily committed to a hike next September and feels those odds are about right. That's a tad dovish.
Market reaction
On net, Draghi was a bit more hawkish on growth/inflation but less hawkish on expectations for a hike. EUR/USD initially rose to 1.1730 from 1.1710 but then fell down to 1.1690. However, a broad USD bid hit at the same time as the decline.
