Brexit questions now
We have changed some of our shorter-term views
Upward revisions in updated forecast reflect the stimulus we put in places after the referendum
We've had unexpected consumer behaviour and a stronger world economy
- We think higher prices will throttle some consumer spending as incomes get squeezed
Carney
Households tend to look through economic uncertainty unless it leads to tighter financial conditions
That's a very valid point and why it's so important now we're in a period of rising prices, and why we'll see knock-on prices rising faster than when we see them falling.
McCafferty
- There are times we need to be wary about business survey results
He's speaking about how the PMI's collapsed after the Brexit vote, then bounced back quickly after. This is still part of being quizzed about forecasting.
Vlieghe
- The BOE is unlikely to be able to predict another financial crisis or recession
- Models just aren't that good
- It's wrong to think that an even better model than we have would allow us to forecast recessions or crisis with any certainty
