Today’s initial jobless claims number shows the challenge the Fed will face when the US government gets back to work.
Initial jobless claims shot higher but how much is due to the shutdown? What about the ill-timed computer problems in California that have been artificially lowering (now raising) numbers?
Eventually, non-farm payrolls for September will be released and that will be a ‘clean’ data point but it’s safe to say that the shutdown will skew every October data point, or at least raise questions. That leaves a virtually nil chance of a taper at the Oct 31 decision and a murky picture for the next one on Dec 18.