The ECB meet on Thursday 26 July 2018
- 1145 GMT for the announcement
- 1230 GMT for Draghi's presser
Long story short is that analysts are not expecting any change in policy and little in nuance.
A couple of previews (in brief, bolding mine), via …
Barclays:
- As the GC laid out its medium term policy plan at the June meeting, we expect no material new information to be announced. Nonetheless, against the backdrop of a more dovish stance than expected in the ECB's enhanced version of the forward guidance, including indications that the first rate hike will not be before September 2019, we believe the Q&A session may provide some interesting clarification about the ECB's position regarding recent developments in inflation, growth and trade wars relative to its baseline.
UBS
- Following the ECB's major monetary policy announcements on 14 June, covering the end of QE by year-end, enhanced guidance on the timing of its first deposit rate hike, and future reinvestments of maturing securities of its QE portfolio, … meeting is likely to be less eventful.
- A key focus will certainly be the ECB's latest assessment of the economic outlook in light of developments in global trade policy. While highlighting external risks, various ECB speakers such as Mario Draghi and Peter Praet have recently pointed out that "the risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook remain broadly balanced", so the question is whether the ECB has turned more sceptical in the meantime.
- Regarding the technical aspects of monetary policy, many observers will be hoping to gain a better understanding of the operational details of the ECB's reinvestment policy and on the timing of its first rate hike, i.e. trying to gauge what the ECB actually means when it hints that key interest rates will stay at their current level "at least through the summer of 2019".
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Something to note I posted on earlier: ICYMI: Bundesbank bullish on German economy
I'll be interested to see if the ECB drifts a little less dovish on this.
