Bank of England in focus today at 12.00 GMT 8 Feb
As usual the interest rate decision, Minutes and inflation report have been over-hyped under the banner of "Super Thursday" but will it really deliver anything of note? I don't think so.
Interest rates ? On hold and for the foreseeable future. A few punters/analysts looking for a hike in/by May but I remain doubtful on that and also keep my view that any rate hikes are only on the agenda now to allow some wriggle room for the next crisis. Same as with the Fed.
Minutes? Watch out for the vote count as that will be the main algo-led risk
Inflation? I don't see any change in stance from previous " inflation to cap around these levels and around this time mantra". GBP strength will have helped to calm any remaining fears of inflation acceleration and that's backed by recent CPI data. Maybe we'll get some upbeat forecasts on GDP given that the stronger pound is helpful for our net-importing economy.
So super anti-climax more likely than Super Thursday imho but , hey, we should always expect the unexpected and we will, as always expect an initial algo headline-led reaction to the headlines so be ready with your entry/exit levels from whichever side you want to play.
Placing limit orders in advance can often be useful given the occasional speed of moves and subsequent reversals, although equally it can be prudent to wait and manually trigger executions once you've sized up the data in its entirety and gauged the price action.
A few GBPUSD option expiries in play at 1.3825 and helping to hold losses for the moment. More behind those at 1.3770
Currently 1.3858 after 1.3845 lows. EURGBP tightly bound around 0.8825. Order boards here and here and ,yes, I remain a GBP rally-seller until otherwise convinced, and that's not going to be today.
More previews here.
Carney - Sitting on the fence again today
