Q2 Bank of Canada business outlook survey future sales +6% vs +16% prior

Highlights of the Bank of Canada's Q2 2018 business outlook survey

  • Prior future sales was +16%

  • Some moderation in expectations for sales growth

  • Capacity pressures rose, with firms citing significant difficulty in meeting an unanticipated increase in demand

  • Labor shortage indicators point to tighter labor markets, firms say shortages more intense than 12 months ago

  • Investment intentions slightly weaker

  • Almost all interviews conducted before May 31 US tariffs

  • Firms expect faster input inflation but majority see it within BOC range

  • Firms anticipate strong growth in US economy

Survey data:

  • Sales growth +29% vs +20% prior

  • Investment intentions +17% vs +24% prior

  • Hiring plans +51% vs +45%

  • Capacity pressures (some or significant pressure combined) 57% vs 47% prior (highest since 2007)

  • Labor shortage 34% vs 26% prior

Looking at the details here, this is much more bullish than the initial headline. The BOC is going to hike on July 11 unless there is a major surprise between now and then.

Here's the BOC's chart on capacity pressures:

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