A Reuters poll of analysts show expectations are being cut for growth ahead:
consensus for global economic growth in 2020 was cut to 3.1%
- from 3.3% in the previous poll in July
- and lower than the International Monetary Fund's latest downgraded forecast of 3.4%
Comments cited in the piece have a familiar ring:
- "At the heart of the slowdown is a downturn in global manufacturing ... the trade war isn't the primary cause per se, but it certainly isn't helping, nor is it going away," said Jan Lambregts, global head financial markets research at Rabobank.
- "Most of the plausible risks we see are to the downside, including a possible no-deal Brexit in Q1 2020, another breakdown in U.S.-China trade negotiations," noted Ajay Rajadhyaksha, head of macro research at Barclays, adding: "by contrast, we do not see upside risks."
- "Key risks remain unresolved. Moreover, downside risks have become more prominent in recent months. The world economy continues to decelerate, and we expect global growth to remain weak well into 2020 while avoiding an outright recession"
Link here for more.
--
Gotta say, while Brexit is still a mess the 'no deal' exit on the UK from the EU does seem to be a tail risk now?
