Household spending growth expectations strengthen. Labor market signals are mixed
The New York Fed's survey of consumer expectations is showing:
- consumers year-end spending growth expectations rose to 3.7%. That is the highest level more than 4 years
- gains in spending come despite flat income and earnings growth expectations
- labor market signals were mixed
- the mean perceived probability of losing one's job in the next 12 months decreased to 14.6% in November from 15.5% in October
- expectations that the unemployment rate will be higher one year from now rose to 40.1%. This was the 1st increase since July
- meet inflation expectations increase 0.2 percentage points 23.0% at the one-year horizon, and increase the 0.1 percentage .2 2.8% at the 3 year horizon
- median ear ahead home price change expectations decreased -0.1% to 3.0% in November. This is the 1st monthly decline since April 2020
- the meeting one year ahead expected change in cost of a college education and in the price of gasoline both increase by 0.3% to 5.2%
- meeting expected change in the cost of medical care fell sharply from 9.1% to 7.1%.
- Expected change in food prices and the cost of rent declined by 0.1% and 0.2% respectively to 5.1% of 5.5%
The link to the survey can be found HERE
