Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz has had a few months to settle into the job but he hasn’t been able to find the spotlight.
Today, Poloz delivers his second major speech as governor and it will have something in common with the first one — it comes on the same day as the FOMC announcement.
A good central bank is on the back pages of the newspaper rather than the front but this is taking it too far. The BOC says the events were scheduled long in advance and we’ll take them at their word.
The comments will be published on the BOC website at 10:25 am ET (1425 GMT) and the speech will be delivered 15 minutes later. Afterwards, there will be a press conference.
For me, all the USD/CAD risks are to the downside. Canada’s housing market continues to soar with home sales up 11.1% y/y but the bigger problem may be household debt, which has been a major focus of the BOC in the past.
Last week’s data showed a huge, unexpected jump to a record high in Q2. The BOC thought it had a handle on debt after a few quarters of declines but that wasn’t the case and it could lead to a warning about rate hikes from Poloz. It’s a low percentage chance but I like a small short here.
