Is the ECB's cunning plan to manipulate the EUR lower working? Seems to be, yep.

The European Central Bank's public undertaking to keep a cap on rising rates does seem to be working to cap the EUR also.

  • Its a weight on European yields
  • and in effect is widening the gap vs. yields in the US (approaching 200bps for Bunds from 150 in January)

Add in some extra ingredients:

  • the renewed imposition of virus restrictions in Italy
  • the threat of the same in France
  • the suspension of the AstraZeneca vaccine in many European countries
  • the snail's pace of vaccine rollout otherwise

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Ahead this week from the eurozone:

  • ECB officials Lagarde, Schnabel, and Guindos speak Thursday
  • Today, Tuesday 16 March 2021 's the ECB publish PEPP data (out at 0845 GMT)
The European Central Bank's public undertaking to keep a cap on rising rates does seem to be working to cap the EUR also.

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