So, the big one is next. While Uncle Bens first concern is the US he has probably banged his head on the table a few times in response to the continuing charade that is Europe.
While there’s slim to no chance of any changes in policy, as usual it will all come down to the statement and speech. The scrutiny will of course be focused on his every word. While he will probably say that QE will go on as normal we’ll need to look for what he says about the economy. Will the rhetoric change from “Still seeing downside risks” to a more upbeat stance? Will he drag in the sequester? He may play down the recent improvements in the economy by adding the “wait and see if it’s sustained” approach.
No doubt he will be questioned on the sequester and economy but also on the European situation. He may use that as another anchor on expectation.
Any statement on reducing QE will send gold down. An overall hawkish stance will see dollar buying across the board. If he stays middle of the road then there may be a small rally v USD.
The market is mainly expecting no change to his stance this time but the pressure is increasing with each good piece of economic data as to when he will signal his exit strategy.
If you’re going to trade stay sharp
Courtesy of Chucky the full shebang can be seen direct here.