ANZ looking ahead to the Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week (July 31 announcement)
In brief (bolding mine):
- FOMC meeting is the key risk event
- market still pricing in a chance of a 50bp move
- there is scope for disappointment
- US data pulse has been broadly positive since the June meeting and this obviously lifts the probability of Chair Powell taking a more cautious tone than the market is expecting.
- Should this occur, the AUD is likely to feel the pinch of a firmer USD
