Kaplan on CNBC
I'm focused making independent decisions
So far actual economic impact of tariffs is moderate
It is having a chilling effect on capex
We expect growth to tail off down to 1.75%-2.00% in the next few years
I don't expect capex spending to lift potential
I think productivity will stay sluggish, largely due to demographics
US households are deleveraging
Households are in "pretty good shape"
His GDP forecast for this year has moved to the high end of the range
The long end of the curve tells me future growth will be sluggish
Yield curve is worth paying attention to
If we get to 2.50%-2.75% on Fed funds rate, that will still be below 10-year
For me, these comments were upbeat and help to cement a path towards higher rates. The US dollar is near the best levels of the day and I don't think that has anything to do with Kaplan but it has a lot to do with the expected path of interest rates.
