Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer spoke overnight
He was at he Economic Club of New York, Adam had the headlines here, here and here
On when to expect the first rise:
- "Whether it's going to be June or September, or some later date, or some date in between, will depend on the data"
- Said labor market readings would be an important guide: "We've got two very positive numbers for the first quarter of 2015 and we're waiting for another one"
Apart from saying a rate rise will "likely will be warranted before the end of the year" Fischer made an obvious point (they often need making):
- Subsequent increases probably won't be uniform or predictable ... "A smooth path upward in the federal funds rate will almost certainly not be realized"
On the US dollar:
- The Fed wants to be "reasonably confident" inflation is rising toward its 2 percent goal before moving
- A stronger dollar could interfere by holding down import prices
- Fischer said the US dollar rise reflected the performance of the U.S. economy and central bank bond buying in Europe and Japan, which will also benefit U.S. growth