Chicago Fed Pres. Charlie Evans
Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans is on the wires saying:
- controlling virus, wearing masks is important to getting consumers feeling comfortable
- his baseline outlook is for US second-quarter to shrink by 30 to 35%, with strong growth in the 2nd half
- says continuing virus is spread is likely to put a damper on consumer sentiment
- sees 9% or 9.5% unemployment at the end of the year, 6.5% next year
- if there is a 2nd wave of outbreak, would expect worse unemployment growth
- he expects US GDP to get back into prior peak by middle or late 2022
- policy needs to be positioned against downside risks
- very importantly get inflation up to Fed's 2% goal
- it's not hard to figure out that Fed needs to provide accommodation 1 unemployment is high and inflation is low
- downplays utility of negative rates and yield curve control
- says forward guidance is most important
Fed's Evans is a nonvoting member this year.
The Federal Reserve's central tendencies for employment at the end of year at a median estimate of 9.3%. Fed's Bullard has been quoted recently that unemployment could go to below 8% by the end of the year. Of course the likes to go out on a limb often.
