Dudley has tilted hawkish lately, he's due up at the top of the hour
Dudley long had a reputation as a dove but over the past two years he's slowly crept towards the hawkish side of the scale as the Fed began to hike rates.
He spoke on June 19 and his comments sent the US dollar higher. He said wages and inflation should pick up and that hew as "very confident" in the expansion.
- Unemployment and inflation levels "pretty good place to be"
- "Very confident" that there is "quite a long ways to go" in the upcoming expansion
- Wage growth pretty consistent with productivity growth
- Not concerned that that automation will take everyone's job
- Wage growth to quicken a bit more as jobs market tightens
He then spoke a week later at a BLS event and said that the recent easing of financial conditions was another reason to tighten.
Notably, it's been six weeks since he made those comments and inflation numbers in the interim have been soft. That said, employment has been good so it likely balances out.
Overall, a dovish shift would be big news but I think there's a chance it happens. Or at least a chance that it looks that way. One reason is because of the format. It's a press briefing on regional wage inequality, so there will naturally be some headlines about soft wage growth.
Given that, I see more of a chance of dollar weakness when his opening remarks are published at 10 am ET (1400 GMT). Also note that he will take questions after his speech.