Fed's Barkin projecting 'hurt' for the US in Q1 and H1 but H2 will be stronger

Barkin is the president and chief executive officer of the Richmond Fed, speaking in an interview with CNBC

  • escalating cases will hurt us in first quarter, first half
  • second half will be very strong
  • it will be 'bumpy' but elevated saving, potential for more stimulus are backstops
  • will see stronger inflation in 2q because of lower inflation a year earlier
  • says expect fiscal support to boost spending over several years

He's still nattering on:

  • you would need to see substantial progress toward goals before discussion on qe taper gets on the table
  • it's important for fed to go as hard as we can to try to achieve goals
  • unemployment rate is not a good measure for where economy is now
  • says labor force participation is the bigger issue; it has taken a big hit
  • says a lot of jobs will come back with vaccines

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