Feds Barkin participates in virtual roundtable of the Ohio Valley

Fed's Barkin speaking on a virtual roundtable of the Ohio Valley

• Expects strong spring and summer
• US in high unemployment and low inflation. We are in the easy box which says stimulate the economy with stimulating policy.
• Sees long term disinflationary forces
• We dont see a movement higher in inflation expectations
• The unemployment rate does not take those people who have left the workforce.
• We do see the level of retirements increasing.
• Support payments are also keeping people from entering the workforce
• We will start tapering asset purchases when see progress toward our financial goals
• It is my expectations that we would lower asset purchases before moving rates.
• I think rates can have a real impact on inflation.
• This crisis has disproportionally impacted the last people in the workforce, and it also went after the next job for those people
• Risk that we have a workforce that does not match the needs for employment
• Fed is going to change policy on outcomes of results vs expectations or timing of changes
• Fear really hits the economy. If have vaccines that keep people out of hospitals and off ventilators, that is better for the economy.
• If people think of crypto as an asset class, that is ok with him.
• I don't think there is a magic moment when the pandemic disappears
• Think we can get to a point where the economy is near full operation by the fall
• I try to look at yields in context of policy guidelines
• If yield curve spike, we are losing control of policy guidelines