Powell, just don't say taper
The FOMC decision is 30 minutes away and the scope for any change in policy is infinitesimal. There is no Summary of Economic Projections today so no dots, just a statement.
There is going to be a rosier bent in the economic assessment in the statement but that's not necessarily going to be read as hawkish.
The key line in the guidance is that:
The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals.
There's a low probability that will change but if it does, look out for falling risk assets.
Assuming no big surprises in the statement, this edition will be all about the press conference. Powell's aim is likely to remain dovish but highlight better economic outcomes. Fed officials have talked about tapering around the turn of the year but Powell will not want to speculate on the timing. If he does, there will be a risk off tone and the FX trade will be to sell commodity currencies.
