ECB announcement and Draghi news conference during Europe time today
Earlier posts ICYMI:
- Another preview of the ECB meeting coming up
- Preview of the ECB meeting coming up on Thursday 24 January
- Thursday's ECB meeting no change expected, but a more dovish Draghi
- European Central Bank monetary policy meeting this week - preview
Thoughts on what to watch for via Daiwa:
- policy guidance will undoubtedly be left unchanged
- we expect the Governing Council's economic assessment and Draghi's press conference to adopt a more dovish tone
- recent dataflow … signalled a further slowdown in economic momentum in the euro area heading into the New Year, Draghi … admitted that uncertainties remain prominent
- Draghi's opening statement on Thursday should acknowledge that the risks to the outlook are now skewed to the downside.
- However, while Draghi last week hinted that the ECB might struggle to adjust the stance of monetary policy this year, we do not expect to see until March at the earliest any tweaks to the guidance that its key interest rates are expected "to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019, and in any case for as long as necessary".
- The next policy initiative of the ECB will relate to liquidity, and so the press conference might also see Draghi questioned about whether, and if so what, work is currently underway on future long-term financing operations.
